Author: Jimy Chavarria

As someone who guides Baltimore buyers and sellers from all walks of life, I’m always tuned in to the deeper questions shaping housing affordability right now. Lately, we’ve seen clear signs of housing disinflation—buyers and sellers aren’t always on the same page, and sellers are increasingly open to concessions. That’s opened the door for some households still chasing the goal of homeownership, but the main obstacle remains: borrowing costs. Benchmark Treasury yields have hovered around 5%, and the average 30-year mortgage rate has edged above the low-7% range.

For many of my clients, this translates to real numbers: in the four weeks ending September 13, the median monthly mortgage payment reached about $2,600—a 3% jump from last year—reminding us just how much financing costs stretch affordability. On top of that, the resale market here in Baltimore (and nationwide) is feeling sticky. Many homeowners are holding onto low-rate loans, which keeps listings scarce, while sellers still hope for pandemic-era prices.

But through all this complexity, industry voices aren’t calling this a crash. Instead, it’s seen as a correction toward stability, underpinned by strong equity and sound lending practices. Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing in Baltimore—especially if you’re navigating this as a newcomer or investor—it’s about understanding where the real opportunities live in a market that’s always evolving.

It’s not often we see the numbers stack up like this: in Baltimore, estimated monthly homeownership costs are running about 27% lower than current rents. For anyone weighing renting versus buying, that’s a real shift worth considering—especially when you factor in more than just the sticker price. I always encourage my clients to look past the headline payment and take in the full picture: fixed mortgage terms, insurance, property taxes, maintenance, repairs, and association fees all play a part in what your monthly budget will actually feel like.

From years of helping Baltimore buyers—whether first-timers, investors, or neighbors new to Maryland—I know that lower monthly costs don’t always guarantee savings. It’s important to ask: how stable is your job? How long do you plan to stay? Some analyses put the break-even point for buying at around six years, so your timeline matters.

If you’re thinking about making a move, digital budgeting tools and a healthy emergency fund can go a long way in smoothing out surprises after closing. Baltimore is a city of neighborhoods and possibilities, and finding the right fit is about both the numbers and your future plans.

One trend I keep a close eye on for my Baltimore clients—especially investors and newcomers navigating their first purchase—is the role of cash sales in the US housing market. Lately, about a quarter of existing-home transactions nationwide are all-cash, and for savvy investors, that’s often a faster indicator of market shifts than what’s happening with mortgages or new builds. When we see cash buyers stepping up even as prices rise, it usually signals strong competition. But if cash sales rise while overall transaction volume dips, it can mean traditional buyers are getting sidelined by tougher financing.

If cash purchases start to drop but prices hold steady, it’s a hint that lending might be loosening, giving regular buyers a chance to re-enter and bringing some stability back to the market. Here in Baltimore, as in many places, small cash investors often focus on unique situations—probate properties, tax issues, homes needing repairs, or families relocating. Even with affordability challenges, these older homes stay in demand when mortgage deals slow down.

What’s clear is that single-family investing depends heavily on local factors: property taxes, title insurance, renovation crews, and the kind of on-the-ground management that makes or breaks a deal. That’s why disciplined local operators often outperform big national roll-up attempts. For international investors especially, partnering with someone rooted in the community can make all the difference. In Baltimore, understanding these nuances is key—and it’s something I bring to every client conversation.

There’s always more to the story than a single number can tell—especially with home prices. By Q2 2026, the US median price for new single-family homes came in at $410,700, while the median for existing homes rose to $435,700—a $25,000 national gap that quarter. That’s the widest spread we’ve seen, continuing a trend that started back in Q2 2024 when existing homes began outpacing new builds on price.

What’s behind this shift? Many homeowners who locked in low mortgage rates during the pandemic chose to stay put, keeping supply tight. Meanwhile, builders responded by offering smaller lots, more compact homes, and a range of incentives to attract buyers. But these national figures don’t always reflect what’s happening here in Baltimore. Every market has its own mix of home types, lot sizes, and construction realities that shape the numbers in unique ways.

By the same Q2 2026, new-home prices nationally slipped about 1% year over year, while existing-home prices kept climbing—though growth slowed to around 2% after three years of steady increases. For anyone thinking about a move or investment in Baltimore, these trends offer context, but the real insight comes from looking locally and understanding the factors that actually affect your decision. That’s where a deep knowledge of our neighborhoods and market rhythms truly matters.

Pending home sales in the US edged up just 0.3% mid-Q3—a modest month-over-month lift that still leaves us about 5% below last year’s pace. Even with higher mortgage rates, buyers are moving ahead with new contracts, and steady job gains plus improved incomes are helping some folks keep pace with rising home prices. But nationally, contract signings are still running about 30% lower than before the pandemic—proof that every pending sale is worth watching as a signal of what’s coming next.

In Baltimore, I see these shifts play out every day. Whether you’re a first-timer, moving up, or investing, understanding how quickly contracts are being signed—and what might delay a closing—matters. The market hasn’t seen the frenzied signing rates of 2021 (when rates hit ~3%) in a while, so tuning into pending contracts gives us an early read on what’s ahead. As always, I’m here to help you navigate Baltimore’s real estate moves with clear perspective and local know-how.